Hit Ratio, Hit Rate & Profit Factor

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE DISCLAIMER

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Trading metrics often look familiar even when they answer different questions. This is precisely the case with hit ratio, hit rate and profit factor. Mixing them can turn a correct number into an incorrect conclusion.

Hit ratio counts winners and losers

The hit ratio is calculated as number of winning trades divided by number of losing trades. It has no unit. A value of 1.0 means the same number of winners and losers. A value of 1.5 means 1.5 winners for every loser. A value below 1.0 means that losing trades outnumber winning trades.

Hit ratioWinners ÷ Losersunitless

The median of 1.5725 shown on this website belongs to this category. It is not a percentage, a return or a monetary profit factor. It summarises the ratio of winners to losers across the oscillators evaluated in Version 1.

Hit rate expresses the same frequency idea as a percentage

Hit rate divides the number of winners by all closed trades. A hit ratio of 1.5 corresponds to a hit rate of 60 per cent: three winners for every two losers. Both metrics therefore describe the frequency of positive and negative outcomes, not their financial size.

Profit factor asks a different question

Monetary profit factor divides total gross profit by total gross loss. It therefore reflects the size of gains and losses. A system can win often and still have a weak profit factor when the average loss is larger than the average gain.

Profit factorGross profit ÷ Gross lossmonetary ratio

A concrete example from the project record

One documented FDAX test contained 1,252 winners and 774 losers, producing a hit ratio of approximately 1.618. The monetary profit factor for the same test was approximately 1.16. Both figures are arithmetically correct; they simply describe different properties of the same test path.

The distinction matters because the baseline configuration at that stage did not yet contain fully implemented stop-loss, break-even and trailing logic. Individual losses could therefore be larger on average than winners even though the number of winners was substantially higher.

Why this distinction matters for Version 2

Version 2 is intended to do more than count how often a decision ends positively. It will model intraday sequencing, stops, costs and slippage. Only then can hit frequency, monetary profit factor and the risk path be evaluated on the same, more realistic execution basis.

Key point:

Hit ratio and hit rate describe how often trades win. Profit factor describes how much the winners made relative to the losers.

Project context

This article explains the currently documented project state. It does not add a new performance claim and does not replace the risk disclosure or the formal revalidation planned for Version 2.

Hit ratio, hit rate and profit factor: three metrics, three different statements